The euro is likely to outperform Australia, New Zealand, sideways vs. GBP, USD on mixed data

An essential element of the euro forecast: bullish

-Move the euro during the week may be the time to spend a lot of time.

Time and price-point cycles EURUSD hitting from above expectation. ...

-. But the euro has benefited from the recent turmoil in commodity currencies.

Resilience of the euro area, following the 25 bps rate cut surprise of the European Central Bank continued this week, finishing at only 0.44% over the weekend, the Swiss franc, while boasting about + 2.43% return for the operation, the Australian dollar. If one thing was clear, it was that investors were in high demand for euro coins in the last five days. Consider the ten, five major currencies gained against the US dollar, and all were from Europe (compared to USD): CHF + 0.90%; SEK + 0.83%; NOK + 0.82%; GBP + 0.67%; (Eur) + 0.46%.

It is becoming increasingly clear that absent further deterioration, the negativity about the European continent has been priced in, he should be considered a positive sign for the euro by non-euro member currencies, see their value also; He also marketed the participant's outlook on the growth of the entire region.

Profits in Europe this week is even more uncertain when illuminated by the October meeting of the Federal Reserve minutes left open the possibility to taper QE3 December data contingent on "improving". With the meeting having occurred before the October figures were available, NFP, because we saw a major move of data held in December to taper, considering how the title handily beat expectations. If the expectations start to taper QE3 – had evidence this week as the yield curve steepened USA – will be difficult for the euro to continue to push out only modest gains against the dollar.

The euro may have elsewhere, however, as was seen this week. The commodity currencies bleeding land in all areas of late Wednesday through Friday to close (the agent), there is evidence of clear round out the higher yielding currencies into lower yielding currencies but friendly growth – the European bloc.

Recent data signals and European policy during the week were far from reassuring for the bulls. At one end, the euro and French PMI was pretty lukewarm, speculation (briefly) ECB would consider cutting its main rate to negative territory. On the other hand, German improved PMIs the German IFO survey improved, Mario Draghi ECB President refuted the idea of negative deposit rates. There are positives and negatives, but for now, it appears to be positive, it looks like ECB will keep policy unchanged at its meeting in December.

This week, there are only a few important events on the calendar, with the United States to cut off liquidity until Wednesday, with market prices might be reduced in the responses to all incoming data. It should be noted, the information in the German market for November arrived on Thursday, which could see further stabilization in the IFO survey.

But the inflation data lifted the Imperial Germany, the euro. ECB to cut its key rate earlier this month after October's figures show deflation in Germany and post-war crisis in inflation in low lit up. Have these figures show modest improvement even after a dip at the start of the euro 13, 4Q could see its strength to extend from commodity bloc more flexible its opponents in recent weeks, the British pound, the dollar, as the calendar turns in the last month of the year. – CV

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BHP Billiton iron ore deal seems likely to collapse.

Regal Group International has been informed that the highly controversial joint venture between mining giants Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton may be dead. Neither company is at this stage prepared to deny or confirm this. An Australian newspaper, quoting from comments made by a leak from the Rio Tinto boardroom said that Rio Tinto is calling off the US$ 120 billion deal.

After the recent Rio Tinto board meeting the firm said it "acknowledged recent communications from regulators that indicate potential obstacles to achieving clearance for the joint venture," however the company emphasized to Regal Group International sources that "the Rio Tinto board has not made any final decisions about possible outcomes."

The joint venture, which would be Australia’s largest merger to date, would see the business valued at $116 billion and was expected to save the world’s second and third largest mining firms around $10 billion through cost sharing on the project, while Rio Tinto with the bigger Pilbara operation would have earned $5.8bn from BHP to equalize their holding.

Regal Group International has learned that the newspaper report indicated that in addition to the numerous regulatory issues surrounding the deal, Rio Tinto had begun to question whether the joint venture with BHP was still the correct direction for the company financially.

The agreement with BHP was reached in mid-2009 when Rio was desperate for cash and was seeking to reduce its $39 billion debt after its acquisition of Canadian aluminum group Alcan. A significant improvement in commodity markets, a $15 billion rights issue and disposals have seen the mining giant cut its debt by more than half, putting it in a position, according to Regal Group International analysts  where it no longer needs the $5.8 billion BHP equalization to rebalance its ledger.

Regal Group International is a full service commodity trading advisory offering services to traders ranging from the beginner, with no experience in the markets at all, to the advanced trader who is looking for an avenue to place fast efficient orders.

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